Review and forecast of seamless pipe market in the first half of 2018
After the ups and downs of the price of 17 years, the seamless pipe market mentality in the first half of 18 years was more peaceful, and the overall price showed a rational correction in the shock. The profitability of the pipe factory has shrunk, and traders have been more difficult under the dual pressure of capital and demand. From the middle of the year to the middle of the year, the overall mood of the industry was slightly depressed. The market’s import and export data did not perform well. Many factors affected the market. We review the following aspects:
First, the price of raw materials fluctuates at a high level, and the cost end supports strong
In 2018, the market price of tube billet showed an N-shaped trend. The price rebounded in March after the price rose at the beginning of the year. After reaching a relatively low point in early April, it fluctuated within a narrow range. Shandong and Jiangsu regions showed mixed operation. As of the end of June, the price of Shandong tube billet rose by RMB 30/ton, and that of Jiangsu tube bill fell by RMB 60/ton. The regional spread was repaired, but the spread between Shandong and Jiangsu remained unreasonable. At the same time, the cost of the factory is high, and the price support is relatively strong, especially the state-owned factory, the price resilience is obviously enhanced. At the beginning of the year, the steel mills such as Henggang, Baotou Steel and Angang have dropped by 50-60 yuan/ Tons, while private steel mills in Shandong fell 300-400 yuan / ton.
Second, the price rational callback, traders in the cracks to survive
In this year’s seamless pipe market, despite the strong raw material prices, the price fluctuated in the contradiction between supply and demand. From the beginning of the year to now, the market price has gradually moved to a low level. As of June 27, the national average price of 108*4.5mm fell by 400 yuan/ton. The national average price of 219*6mm fell by 274 yuan/ton. The prices of mainstream markets such as Shanghai, Guangzhou and Linyi were lowered by RMB 400-500/ton. From the transaction point of view, the seamless pipe in the first half of the year shrank year-on-year, and the competition of traders was fierce. From raw materials to pipe plants, then from pipe plants to trade. In the link, the decline has gradually increased. It can be seen that while the profit of the pipe factory is compressed, the profit performance of traders has narrowed. Some mainstream seamless pipe market prices have been upside down since the end of the year, and the digested prices accompanying inventory have gradually recovered to a reasonable range since April.
Third, the sample steel mill seamless pipe factory inventory fell, social inventory rebounded
Before and after the Spring Festival in 2018, the social inventory of seamless pipes in the winter storage of traders rebounded. After March, the stocks gradually declined, but the overall decline was not obvious. As of the end of June, social inventories rose by 12.34% compared with the beginning of the year, while 10 sample enterprises in Shandong The internal inventory declined, which was 2.74% lower than the beginning of the year. It can be seen that part of the factory warehouse was converted into social inventory, and the pressure of traders gradually became apparent.
Fourth, the downstream demand is generally acceptable, and the state-owned management factory orders are relatively sufficient.
In 2018, the demand for oil casings performed well. In the first half of the year, the state-owned seamless pipe factory had sufficient orders, so the overall price decline was limited. However, in the first half of the year, the production volume of the general pipe decreased year-on-year, and some resources were relatively tight. Up to now, the author has learned that large state-owned steel mills have performed well in order scheduling. Shandong private steel mills have reduced production at the end of June, and the pressure on steel mills has weakened. However, the overall advantage of state-owned steel mills in the later market is still obvious, or The support price is running at a relatively high level.
5. For the later trend, there is still downward pressure on the price of seamless pipes.
Although the current raw material prices remain high, there is still support for the cost of the pipe plant, but the short-term billet inventory has partially recovered. With the traditional off-season in July, the billet price fluctuates more.
State-owned steel mills still perform well in short-term orders, but private steel mills have more new capacity in the second half of the year, especially in Linyi and Liaocheng, Shandong. The release of capacity in the second half of the year may give the market a chance to reshuffle.
In 2018, the cost of capital occupied by traders is not reduced. In the case of shrinking profits, most merchants take the market share by means of small profits but quick turnover. At the same time, some factories have the action of moving forward of the factory, which is undoubtedly an impact on market traders.
In general, the seamless pipe market in the first half of the year ended in shocks. In the second half of the year, the market pressure was larger than that in the first half of the year. In September, the market still had room for correction in the off-season of demand. In the latter stage, it is still necessary to pay close attention to market changes.
Source: China Seamless Steel Pipe Manufacturer – Yaang Pipe Industry Co., Limited (www.ugsteelmill.com)
(Yaang Pipe Industry is a leading manufacturer and supplier of nickel alloy and stainless steel products, including Super Duplex Stainless Steel Flanges, Stainless Steel Flanges, Stainless Steel Pipe Fittings, Stainless Steel Pipe. Yaang products are widely used in Shipbuilding, Nuclear power, Marine engineering, Petroleum, Chemical, Mining, Sewage treatment, Natural gas and Pressure vessels and other industries.)
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